Why Alisson Is Worth Every Penny

Article by Sam McGuire @SamMcGuire90 There’s a dearth of world-class goalkeepers in football these days. There is an argument to suggest that it’s always been a club with limited members involved but, there’s no escaping it, numbers have definitely been on the decline over recent years.   It’s why now, more than ever before, elite ???keepers are worth their weight in gold. The ???75million deal to bring Alisson to Anfield might seem excessive but he’s worth every single penny of it. He could be the difference between a top-four finish and a title challenge. And those doubting the fee are underestimating the impact a ???keeper like the Brazilian No.1 can have on the team.   For example, It’s unlikely many clubs would blink an eye at paying £80million for Jan Oblak if it was structured like every other deal. In fact, it’s safe to assume the only thing keeping him at the Metropolitano Stadium is the fact his rumoured release clause has to be paid in one lump sum and few clubs are comfortable parting with such money in one transaction. Alisson might be a tier below the Atletico Madrid ???keeper, purely because he’s not done it at the top level for as long as the Slovenia international, but he’s just as much of a difference maker and it’s exactly what the Merseyside club needs.   Liverpool fans have witnessed first hand the difference a consistently reliable shot-stopper can have on a team. Unfortunately for them, it’s not been to the benefit of the Reds. Whenever they come up against Manchester United it’s David de Gea who keeps his side in the game. And with Jose Mourinho’s men struggling defensively over the past few seasons, the Spaniard is the sole reason they’ve qualified for back to back Champions League campaigns.   For context, during the 2017/18 campaign, United conceded just 28 goals at a rate of 0.7 per 90 minutes. However, their (xGA) expected goals against total for the season was 43.54. Essentially, it means the opposition created high-quality chances worth 1.14 goals per 90. Poor finishing no doubt played a part but for United to sustain such an overperformance for the entire season is down to their No.1. In comparison, Liverpool conceded 38 league goals last season with an xGA of 35.75. The slight underperformance was down to Simon Mignolet with Loris Karius coming in at par when looking at goals vs expected goals. While United were breached 15 times fewer than was expected, the Reds conceded 2.25 more.   Karius conceded 14 goals and his xGA was 13.47. He performed as expected, at least in the Premier League. He’s not an elite keeper. Not yet, anyway, and it’s not an area the Reds can be patient with if they want to compete at the top. It’s worth remembering that the two shot-stoppers are playing in different leagues against different opponents, so it would be naive to suggest Alisson’s form is transferable from Serie A to the Premier League, but the quality is there.   Levelling the playing field    Now, Jurgen Klopp’s defence isn’t often troubled, as evidenced by the xGA numbers, but it means the German tactician needs a ???keeper who can make those match-deciding saves.   And that’s why Liverpool’s pursuit of Alisson didn’t come to a premature end like some had suggested. The Brazilian was worked while at Roma. The Serie A side had an xGA total for the season of 38.48 but conceded 28. An overperformance of ten goals. Not de Gea levels but not far off. For added context, the 2016/17 season saw Roma, with Wojciech Szcz??sny in goal, conceded three goals more than their expected total of 38. Similar xG but a substantial difference in actual goals against.   Not only that, though, watch their Champions League match against Barcelona at the Nou Camp. He conceded four on the night but without him between the sticks they would’ve been out of Europe after the first leg. As detailed in Chris’ Stats and Tactics show, he’s regularly pulling off game-changing saves which is essentially what Liverpool need.   It’s clear that Alisson is one of the best in the world and he could be a difference-maker for Liverpool in high-profile matches, even if he didn’t have the best of auditions at Anfield during the Champions League semi-final. The former Internacional shot-stopper conceded seven goals across the two legs, with five of those coming at Anfield. On paper it looks like a bad day at the office, but, in reality, he made a host of key saves, across both legs, to keep Roma in the tie. He’s the sort to come to the fore in the season-defining matches and even if he performs at 50 per cent of the level he did while in the Italian capital, he’s going to have a positive impact on the team.   The Reds have needed a ???keeper like that for quite some time but opted to make do with Mignolet and Karius until they found themselves in a position to attract one of the best in the world.   Liverpool could have got by with Karius between the sticks. After all, Klopp’s system didn’t allow the opposition many chances and that was before the arrivals of Fabinho and Naby Keita. But he’s assembling a team capable of competing for every trophy going and he wasn’t prepared to take any chances. Alisson’s not a luxury, he was a necessity and perhaps the final piece of a team now set up for the first genuine title challenge since the inception of the Premier League. Just like with van Dijk, he’s got the ability to make everyone forget about the transfer fee. Article by Sam McGuire @SamMcGuire90