By Paul Machin @ThePaulMachin
The question has been peppering my mentions, my youtube comments, my brain at night as I try to sleep, like the ravings of a lunatic, screaming hot, angsty spittle at their own reflection in the mirror.
Have you ever been 100% certain of a fact, but the doubt of others has forced you to double check? “Yep, I defo locked the front door/turned the oven off/spelt that word correctly, but probably what if i’m wrong. I’m not wrong. BUT WHAT IFFFFF?!” Maddenng right? Right.
So, let’s address the first elephant in the room. You might want to sit down for this one…
Liverpool HAVE in fact signed a footballer this summer.
I know. I checked. Twice. Crazy right?
You’d think that spending £36m on a centre back, when it was the one huge, glaring weakness in the squad would count for something right? Apparently not.
Look, listen, I jest. Sort of. That is but the tip of the summer transfer angst iceberg. The REAL question is “Why aren’t Liverpool buying anyone ELSE?”. It’s a reasonable question, often asked with unreasonable malice. It’s a fair question. More than fair in fact. Liverpool went from Champions to scraping 3rd place, whilst the City side that dethroned them did so at a canter and have added Jack Grealish for a British transfer record, and stand poised to break it again for Harry Kane (possibly).
Logically, it should follow that City are now automatically even further away, because 17 point gap + Grealish and Kane (possibly) = Bigger gap. Right? Maybe. It’s football of course, and not a Year 9 Maths SAT question, so the variables are far greater, and thus is potential answer is far trickier to establish. Liverpool after all won the Champions League and got 97 points, bought no one and then won the league at a record pace and finished with 99 points. Fast maths. But really just a smart arse way of saying, anything is possible in football. Also that anxiety is a bitch.
Anyway, to now, to Liverpool, to the squad and the lack of movements into the club. I’ve heard all kinds of reasons why things seem to have dried up here, the most “CAPS LOCKY” of which normally centres around Liverpool’s owners being tight dickheads. They might be, by the way. The Super League stuff (and the furlough stuff, the Liverpool trademark stuff and the £77 ticket stuff) lends to distaste and distrust, rightfully.
There’s also Klopp’s quotes, wherein he speaks very clearly about the number of senior players he has in his squad. “No MORE players” needed, he says. This is at the crux of the issue.
Do Liverpool have 25 world class players in their squad? They do not. Does that mean there is room for improvement? Yes, absolutely. Although that margin gets finer every year- the best players stay boss, the young stars get better. We love passion and emotion in football, we loathe numbers and spreadsheets and balance sheets. Forgive me then for highlighting the very unsexy, very “line in a spreadsheet”, ticking of a box problem that is preventing Liverpool from flying back into the transfer market…
HENDO: 10 YEARS A RED BOOKAZINE – BUY HERE
Liverpool have too many players.
More accurately, Liverpool have too many “non-home grown” players.
Urgh…
Just typing it makes my penis flaccid, and my eyes start to droop as well. Sinfully boring.
Yep, Liverpool can register a maximum of 17 non-homegrown players in their Premier League and Champions League squads. Right now they have 17 non-homegrown senior players on the books.
If they want to sign another, then they either need to move one on first, OR take a gamble, and it’s a gamble we’ve seen at Barcelona, Man City, PSG, Arsenal, United and more this summer, and buy first THEN try to shift one on.
For the sake of showing my working, that list is as follows:
Alisson
Adrian
Virgil Van Dijk
Matip
Konate
Robertson (mad right? I had no idea, but yeah, Scots don’t count)
Tsimikas
Fabinho
Thiago
Keita
SHAQIRI
Salah
Mane
Firmino
Jota
ORIGI
Minamino
I’ve highlighted Shaqiri and Origi, as probably the two most likely candidates. It’s pseudo-public knowledge that Shaq wants a move, and Liverpool are willing to facilitate (but not below asking price- with Lyon’s 4million euro bid being rebuffed). To add depth here, Shaqiri reportedly earns £80k per week (£3.8m per year) and has 2 years left on his contract. Divock earns £50k (£2.5m per year) and has 3 years remaining. (The wage figures aren’t exact, but let’s run with them to work through the point…)
These figures are important, for two reasons.
- If we sign a new non-HG player, but don’t free up a space, it means that someone will be unregistered for the season. We will own them, pay them, but be unable to play them in any competitive matches. (Like Arsenal did with Ozil). For Shaqiri’s case that is paying more or less £3.8m to have an extra body in training.
- If we wish to release that player (like Arsenal did eventually with Ozil and Mustafi), then the likelihood is that we will have to pay off their contracts. In the case of Shaqiri, that would cost £3.8m x the remaining years of his contract (2), which is in the region of £7.6m- just to have rid.
Now of course, there’s a case to be made for moving these lads out on loan, (see the career of Marko Grujic for the best recent example of this), which might protect or raise their values. The major sticking point with all of this is finding clubs who are interested, and then from that list choosing one that can afford the wages and then can maybe pay a loan fee. Oh, and THEN, does the player actually WANT to play for that club? (See the career of Lazar Markovic for the best recent example of that)
So, yeah tricky, and of course maybe this is where the “tightness” of Liverpool’s ownership group becomes a factor. Is it worth swallowing the pointless wages of an unusable Origi or a Shaqiri for a season, if it meant that you could push the button on a player to improve the first XI? Maybe. Without knowing who that player is, it’s hard to make the call. If it’s Mbappe, then Shaq could wear the Mighty Red costume this season for all I care. If it’s an Yves Bissouma or a Saul? Someone good, but really, just another rotation player? Maybe not.
And lastly, it’s worth pointing out, that whilst there are some doubts over the fitness issues for some, and maybe the overall quality, what clearly isn’t in doubt, is the mentality, the work rate and the attitude of those in the current Liverpool squad. Jurgen Klopp does not suffer laziness, or lack of commitment in his players. If the window closed today he would have a tight knit side, with tonnes of understanding, camaraderie, and importantly, experience of winning all the honours we want the Reds to challenge for. He’ll feel Liverpool can do so again.
Will Liverpool sign someone else? Let’s hope so, because, let’s face it, transfers are boss. But if we don’t, does that mean Liverpool will struggle? If you think so, cool, but it also means you haven’t been paying attention this past 3 years. Maybe.
Anyway, this was a ballache to type out, for more from me on this, with more questions answered (and better explained), check my latest video, where I also go into some more detail on the strength in depth of Liverpool’s squad, and where any “upgrades,” are most likely to occur… Ta!
Maych
@ThePaulMachin
Get my full thoughts in the video below over on Maych TV!
